mysidetrades: August 2009

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Some short ideas

GE: Struggling under its 200 D MA
ERTS and LMT.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Lots of rotation Not much pull-back

I am staying net short for a few days more, to see some correction at least.

SHORT List: DIN, KR, ALGT, ASEI
LONG List: GBX, GY

Thursday, August 6, 2009

More SHORT candidates ...

Buy Puts on ERTS
First-quarter results beat expectations, analysts worried about sales of sports games and new releases

Monday, August 3, 2009

Banks, Energy, Gold and Ag. ETF/Stocks for Long side this week

Update: Aug. 5th, 09:
On Short List: FCN, HLF, ORLY, PPL, USM
Long: SGR

Tech. stocks loosing momentum and its upto other sectors, to take S&P t 1000. I am looking at some ETF's and their derivitives and belive there are stocks and ETF's to buy this week. I looked at XLF, XLE, OIH, GLD, DBA and MOO. DBA & MOO are interesting since looking at Sept Soybeans/Corn and Wheat , I see some buying after months of low prices. So ETF's like DBO and MOO should see some gains.

My trading rules:

Here are a few trading rules that I found working for me over the past 15 years.
A. Try to follow the steps of the elephants (i.e. big mutual funds and institutions).
B. Its not my goal to predict the bottom for a falling stock or hoping to sell at the top.
C. I will be happy to pick the right stock, make a trade in the right direction, and take profit.
D. Always look for shorting opportunities in the market. Fear is a powerful emotion which can drive the stock price to lower levels.
E. Do not see how one can survive without buying puts to protect against bad market. (well If you have short positions a falling market is a good market).
F. Try to allocate not more than 20% of my trading budget for each trade. Always have 15-20% cash and survive my bad decisions and losing trades.
G. Not in love with particular stock or industry group.
H. Always on the hunt for opportunities in the entire equity market.
I. Step away from battle field. Avoid trading one week before and after earning announcement. Digest earning calls and company announcement before getting into it. When you gamble , the house always wins and you lose.
J. Rapid fire moment, does not lend itself to smart thinking.
K. Pressure is mother-of-all bad decisions, don't pressure yourself.
L. Never kick yourself for taking profit.
M. A money management tip: You get out, when getting is good, before you blow yourself up.
N. Its Ok to take a pass on a trade, listen to your inner Clint Eastwood, "Man got to know his limitations."
O. Assess your down-side before entering a trade, not your upside.
P. Always have 10% of your portfolio in cash, and consider yourself fully vested, if you are below 10%. Need to sell some positions to raise cash.
Q. Have a list of good stocks to buy from, look for pullback and be patient. Not having a list to pick from, is a good indication that you have not done your homework.
R. Refrain from trading on a volatile day, let the dust settle, and let the amateurs play. Enter a position when more odds in your favor. Playing earnings is a dangerous way to gamble.

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