mysidetrades: May 2009

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Could things get any worse for Education/School Group

I am looking at ESI and APOL in School group which is the weakest group among broad sectors of the equity market. There is a SHORT trade here somewhere, maybe buying Puts on ESI.
I am also short HOG.

Friday, May 22, 2009

Nat. Gas & Coal seems to go lower

With KOL sitting at its 200 MA I looked at JRCC and MEE which seems forming bullish pattern earlier this week, now turning all down. UNG: Natural Gas also dropped more than 9% yesterday and looking to head for the retest of 12.69. Not looking good boys! SPY also is capped at its 200 MA and turning south. I am net negative right now, sold some of my FWLT's and holding puts on SPY and OSIP and some INTC June 15 puts as well. (which I will cover real soon).

Thursday, May 21, 2009

How to play weakening Dollar?

I am tracking several currency ETF' (against USD)

Also have a channel on Finviz.com for tracking USD vs. World!: http://www.finviz.com/collaborate.ashx?si=1

Friday, May 15, 2009

Buy AG. Names on the DIP

Not decided which one yet! Should I go with the one already made significant move and proven to be in more demand, or believe the lower PE ones will play "catch-up" soon.
{ SQM, IPI, LXU, AGU, POT, MOS }

After Lows' earnings yesterday, I turn more positive towards home builders and housing related
XHB and HD would be my choice for trading in this space. I did buy FWLT yesterday (19% of trading money at this point). I will by calls on XHB or HD tomorow on any pull-back.

One SHORT Idea: OSIP

Friday, May 1, 2009

Long Candidates ...

TTM (Tata Motors): http://www.flickr.com/photos/28670532@N04/3490416831/

MELI: http://www.flickr.com/photos/28670532@N04/3490414515/in/photostream/

My trading rules:

Here are a few trading rules that I found working for me over the past 15 years.
A. Try to follow the steps of the elephants (i.e. big mutual funds and institutions).
B. Its not my goal to predict the bottom for a falling stock or hoping to sell at the top.
C. I will be happy to pick the right stock, make a trade in the right direction, and take profit.
D. Always look for shorting opportunities in the market. Fear is a powerful emotion which can drive the stock price to lower levels.
E. Do not see how one can survive without buying puts to protect against bad market. (well If you have short positions a falling market is a good market).
F. Try to allocate not more than 20% of my trading budget for each trade. Always have 15-20% cash and survive my bad decisions and losing trades.
G. Not in love with particular stock or industry group.
H. Always on the hunt for opportunities in the entire equity market.
I. Step away from battle field. Avoid trading one week before and after earning announcement. Digest earning calls and company announcement before getting into it. When you gamble , the house always wins and you lose.
J. Rapid fire moment, does not lend itself to smart thinking.
K. Pressure is mother-of-all bad decisions, don't pressure yourself.
L. Never kick yourself for taking profit.
M. A money management tip: You get out, when getting is good, before you blow yourself up.
N. Its Ok to take a pass on a trade, listen to your inner Clint Eastwood, "Man got to know his limitations."
O. Assess your down-side before entering a trade, not your upside.
P. Always have 10% of your portfolio in cash, and consider yourself fully vested, if you are below 10%. Need to sell some positions to raise cash.
Q. Have a list of good stocks to buy from, look for pullback and be patient. Not having a list to pick from, is a good indication that you have not done your homework.
R. Refrain from trading on a volatile day, let the dust settle, and let the amateurs play. Enter a position when more odds in your favor. Playing earnings is a dangerous way to gamble.

mysidetrades