mysidetrades: April 2009

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

More SHORT candidates ...

More SHORT candidates:

AEM: http://www.flickr.com/photos/28670532@N04/3485738218/
RCII: http://www.flickr.com/photos/28670532@N04/3484981421/
{ Let this one bounce a little from here }

Monday, April 27, 2009

On My Radar for Wk April 27th, 2009

LONG Candidates: Eastman Chemicals beating estimates and stocks exploded 20% higher on 3 times volume"...

* Q1 adjusted EPS 25 cents vs. estimate of 14 cents

* Sales down 35 percent

[DOW may also be a good BUY based on the sector move and good news from EMN]

I missed the impressive move in Apparel/Accessories Group, hope not too late for putting them on my radar screen.

SHORT Candidate: Netflix (NFLX):

The company raised its subscriber and earnings targets but gave a guidance that disappointed some
analysts.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

2009-04-11_AEM_SHORT

2009-04-11_AEM_SHORT
Originally uploaded by SouthBayTrader

Bearish on Gold! ... This one looks like a god short when stocks hit its 200 MA (50.23) expecting drop to 36-40 level.

2009-04-11_GS_LONG

2009-04-11_GS_LONG
Originally uploaded by SouthBayTrader

Waiting for pull-back to 112 (200-MA)

My trading rules:

Here are a few trading rules that I found working for me over the past 15 years.
A. Try to follow the steps of the elephants (i.e. big mutual funds and institutions).
B. Its not my goal to predict the bottom for a falling stock or hoping to sell at the top.
C. I will be happy to pick the right stock, make a trade in the right direction, and take profit.
D. Always look for shorting opportunities in the market. Fear is a powerful emotion which can drive the stock price to lower levels.
E. Do not see how one can survive without buying puts to protect against bad market. (well If you have short positions a falling market is a good market).
F. Try to allocate not more than 20% of my trading budget for each trade. Always have 15-20% cash and survive my bad decisions and losing trades.
G. Not in love with particular stock or industry group.
H. Always on the hunt for opportunities in the entire equity market.
I. Step away from battle field. Avoid trading one week before and after earning announcement. Digest earning calls and company announcement before getting into it. When you gamble , the house always wins and you lose.
J. Rapid fire moment, does not lend itself to smart thinking.
K. Pressure is mother-of-all bad decisions, don't pressure yourself.
L. Never kick yourself for taking profit.
M. A money management tip: You get out, when getting is good, before you blow yourself up.
N. Its Ok to take a pass on a trade, listen to your inner Clint Eastwood, "Man got to know his limitations."
O. Assess your down-side before entering a trade, not your upside.
P. Always have 10% of your portfolio in cash, and consider yourself fully vested, if you are below 10%. Need to sell some positions to raise cash.
Q. Have a list of good stocks to buy from, look for pullback and be patient. Not having a list to pick from, is a good indication that you have not done your homework.
R. Refrain from trading on a volatile day, let the dust settle, and let the amateurs play. Enter a position when more odds in your favor. Playing earnings is a dangerous way to gamble.

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