LONG Rails

WAB and UNP

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BCSI Long, SDA Short

Semi's getting Hot

$SOX looking good and looking at many of the semiconductor stocks tell the sector is attracting money. After all we are out of the low season for these stocks heading to 4th quarter, expecting semi's to do well. CY is attractive and poised to move higher. Two stocks on my radar now, TXN and NVDA. Both had heavy volume CALL options traded on Thursday.
TXN Sept 27.5 ~13k contracts
NVDA Sept 12.5 ~24k contracts


BUY (on the pull-back a.k.a DIP): ILMN , ONXX, Like the setup in Mohawk industries MHK, and Still long RIMM.

One Year Anniversary

mysidetrades blog is One Year old

Interestingly my first post was about Shorting HOV at $15.58, and my yesterday blog entry was about Buying Calls on Home Builders and Home Improvement stocks, highlighting HOV.

Is it Time to pick some Home Builders?

Home builders and home improvement stocks had a rough couple of years. They seem to gain a second wind after financials bottomed in July. Home Improvement group raised about 7% on Friday.
I have looked at some of the individual stocks and ETF's in these groups. My picks would be XHB, SHW and HOV. (maybe even for longer term trades or investment!)

LOW: HD: (resist. 27.5 and more signific. 30): SHW: resist. 60
TSCO: (Nice gap up but very close to resist.)
Both Home Builders and Home construction ETF's were up about 6-7%
XHB: Up close to 7%: ITB:
Heard there was a report that real estate lisc. increased this month after months/yrs of decline (I am not too sure but there must be a reason like that)
HOV: went below 5 in Jan08 then bounced to 12-13 and then again headed south to bellow $5 in JULY (its closed at $7.66 on Friday)

Getting little bit Bulish

That's swinging to the Bull-side for real short term here and buy-into this rally we had today, I am going to get Long on some Tech. names like AMZN and JNPR (after CSCO good numbers) and solid numbers these names produced, I think that's not such a bad idea. A riskier trade would be going long on AAPL, GOOG or RIMM, However I like AAPL better.

AMZN Aug 80 is $2.09 and AAPL AUG 165 is $2.40, JNPR Sept 27 is $1.00

I am also bullish on Trucking group and my pick in this group is J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT). JBHT is breaking out, its a bit over-bought but over-all its moving up nicely. IBD stock check, ranks it as the Best in its group.

Oil/Natural Gas/Coal and Air line trades

I am looking to SHORT Oil (buying calls on DUG), Nat. gas (through UNG puts) and COAL (ACI, JRCC, ANR or KOL). But before trading them to the down-side I think Oil and Natural Gas are due for a bounce here. I see OIL may bounce form 125 level to 130 or so then heading down to 110-115 in longer term or even 116-118 in short term, I generally trade Call options for DUG, and planning to pick up some Air lines as well (LUV , DAL or CAL) Looking at their charts, it seems DAL and CAL are inverse OIL trend play but LUV seems to have some other positive catalyst working for it beside falling oil price.

GLD & GDX Breaking Down

On July 31st I pointed out that GLD is not doing so well, On a low trading day last Friday Aig 1st, the Gold miners were trading more than average, GDX (Gold Miners ETF) is testing $42.50 for the third time in the past several months, I believe its ready to break down, there are some individual stocks in this group like NEM, GG and ABX which maybe taken out instead of GDX, But I am more comfortable on betting on the whole group rather than an individual stock.

Note on BIIB, ALN: Speculative purchase Sept Calls on BIIB and/or ELN, certainly very risky but the down-side move is too much IMO.
BIIB Sept 60 Calls: 0.75-0.95
ELN Sept 15 Calls: 0.50-0.60

Look into Insider's activities to get a clue

One can learn a lot by following the insider trading patterns, they often seem to do the right things at the right time. Looking at purchases that exec's had in Merrill Lynch is an example. It seems they call MER bottomed at $22.50 and they put their money where their mouth is.

Another Stock is AAR Corp. (AIR), which seems to bottom around $12.50, the Double Bottom Price Pattern and the Bull flag following that is pretty encouraging. It also seems that insider were selling in Dec 07/Jan 08 through the highs and started to buy share in Mid/toward end of July-08.

I am loking into buying longer term options in both.

MMR in Oil and Gas Operations group is another example that I am watching for my own education. I am not in favor of this group but, the price action and insider's action is very favorable, ($9 million dollar bet which must be taker seriously).

I encourage you top look at insider tradings which are published by various sites (public info.)
I use: J3 Information Services Group.

And finally YASC (Yet-Another-Short-Candidate): EQIX (Patterns: Filled Gap and H&S), according to Yahoo Finance they missed their earning numbers 16 analysts following this stock and 14 have Buy ratings. So a down grade may be in the bag for this stock.

Others On my Watch List this week:
Long UNG : Anticipating Natural Gas Bounce (in very short term) , longer term I am negative on Nat. Gas and Oil.
Long UTHR & DGX: Health care and Biotech are in good shape and money flow in these sectors is strong.
Short NETL: Descending Triangle, Sitting on top of the "Gap" I am anticipating that this gap will be filled.
Trade on Beaten Down Russia: Is it too Late to SHORT Russia: VIP, RSX (Russia ETF).