Last time I check Still Bear Market

Still a Bear Market, Choppy and Indicisive, stay long with the pockets that worked well with predictable earnings, and stay away from broken companies. However after seeing US gov. determination in rescuing banks I stay away from shorting banks (unless for a day trade) , also think Oil will go down soon (may pop from here but then lower).

Toyota (TM) is breaking down its at 1 yr low now (down $3 today) I am thinking to short this one after getting a little pop (that's just what doctor ordered) .

Sony (SNE) is pressured by and loosing ground (YASC == Yet-Another-Shorting-Candidate I just made it up)

Nintendo (NTDOY) reported and made the beating they are laying on Sony and Microsoft even more clear. NTDOY sold 5.17 million Wiis for the quarter. By comparison, Sony sold 1.56 million PS3s and Microsoft sold 1.3 million 360s.

I stay with Biotech and Pharma for long side of the my trades, CELG still looking good also after seeing what happened to BIIB after market today and lack of knowledge in this sector I stay in tuen with this EFT (IBB -- NASDAQ Biotechnology) .

Better shot at Broken Companies

This rally gives us better opportunity to short broken stocks/companies CMG , ANF.
I will be after shorting companies with bad/disappointing earnings and/or outlook, and then look at price patterns, since I could certainly miss trend reversals , CMG and ANF both failed to participate in the rallies in the past couple of days so my guess is they are waiting for bears to catch up and take them (again)
Other ideas:
1) H&S (Head & Shoulder pattern) On GLD its heading south to $85 level

2) DUG down 10% as Oil rallied, my bias is the Oil rally will be over soon and looking at buying Calls on DUG Or shorting GDP (that I missed last time it went down $15, I did not pay up 15 cents on some PUT options and missed out a big move to the south pole.)

Apparel Group Lost Substantially

Looking into SHORTING couple of stocks in Apparel group (COLM and VLCM) both went down sharply in heavy volume, Money flow in the sector was pretty bad this week and these stocks have tough time ahead of themselves (both lowered outlook), expecting a little pop and then short them .

On the LONG side:
(1) I will be the buyer of EDU in the strong SCHOOL group. The SCHOOL Group (APOL, EDU , STRA) are pretty strong, I think I found a trade candidate, EDU showing a BULL-Flag and its checked out relatively strong among the stocks in the same group.
(2) JNPR Great Earning Report , Chart shows the beginning of a Strong Pole of a Bull Flag pattern, hope it pulls back before getting into this for longer term options.
(3) RAILS are enjoying their very own bull market WAB is shooting higher
(4) Biotech, (XBI) and Medical Equip Groups are pretty strong. I still have my CVD Calls and today I am looking at ICLR for a potential Buy (Bull Flag setting - anticipatory buy).

Groups attracting money and the ones which are paying the price:


[Click on the image to see the actual size]

Medical Equipment & Supplies play

This group has been attracting big money lately, the following diagram shows the money flow into the group is significantly accelerated.



I am interested in couple of stocks in this group, Cyberonics (CYBX) and St. Jude Medical (STJ),
CYBX came from $9 in Feb 08 to $25 on Friday, STJ is also getting ready to break through $48 (it hit its 52 weeks High on Thursday ,
For charts with my annotation you can refer to my Flickr album.
CYBX , STJ.

Buying Puts in Recreational Activities Sector

Slowing Economy - Recession - The entire group of stocks are sick and bleeding, maybe we can make some profit from the ones which from pricing stand point has more room to fall and failed rallies. "Recreational activities sector" although has shown some improvement as a group in the past two weeks, but one can find signs of failed rallies and more of the same (i.e. bleeding) is expected in their near future. I will be focusing in buying PUTs in one of the following stocks real soon.
UPDATE: Sold my LVS Puts with 105% profit in one day and will stay away from shorting this group after reversal in WYNN (After hours) otherwise that would be my next short candidate. SYT also went up $0.91 (or 1.5%) so makes the puts I have been watching cheaper and more appealing.
UPDATE 7/18/08: Closed SYT (My trade was the Only trade on Friday! I bought these options at 1.65 sold 3.80)


Recreational Activities: SHORT Candidates: TRK, MTN, ISCA, RCL

Sinking Ships

Well I don't know about that , but I can surely find more abandoned ships than anything else for the past few days. Agricultural Crops Group is getting hammered and went down in ranking from 90 to 64th percentile of all industry groups, I am looking into buying puts on SYT. I also bough puts on Las Vegas Sands (LVS) today and bought Calls on DUG (Basically shorting OIL).