Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Was not fast enough to catch any action

APOL went down big KBX went Up big, Both left the gate without saying good bye, could not catch any of them, any how .. This one may do me some good , hope we get a pull-back, chart looks good and promising, looking into going long on this one.
Ashland (ASH) is a buy

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Schools in trouble, use rallies to short APOL

Read this blog posting in "Tomorrow's Newspaper" , I buy that argument and anticipate a rally from here but these rallies are good selling opportunities. The longer term trend is downwards and I am looking into shorting some yesterday's favorites.The posting is about broader market down trend, but I did my "random" walk examining the sectors and their ranking changes in the past 1 or 2 months, came across "Schools" which are dropped heavily in the past month or so. Schools were doing great in 2007 but from early Feb they are in trouble. Apollo group (APOL) dropped from 70 to 54 in less than a month, broke the uptrend and signals more pressure in upcoming days. Stochastics point to over-sold situation and I think this may have 2 to 5 points to up side and then heading right back down the spiral to 48-50 this time. I am looking at buying some puts when APOL gets to 61-62 range, The SCHOOL group as a whole is in trouble, and my take is, big money out-flow from this sector (began 1 or 2 months back).

Another Matter totally unrelated to APOL case, Gold seems to be the safe haven for frightened soles. Even speculative names in the sector is getting hot when a sector is in favor. I like GLD for long time now but never traded it, this issue (KBX ) is extremely speculative but I just may get into it to see how it feels, the volume is rather high in the past month and its over bought but it seems to point to a directional trade (upwards) for 20-to 30% higher than its price today in a short period of time.





Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Long AG`s Shorting Oil and maybe Buying Goldman Sachs

The rally was a relief for over-sold markets, but S&P500 long term support broken and takes a lot more than this rally to signal a trend reversal. There are a few trading idea`s and one could just go long on many stocks or index`s and get lucky. I think the Fed`s news will help dollar and hurt Oil which is going up a lot and due for at least a correction. I am looking into buying DUG (Shorting Oil). At the same time buying natural gas which usually follow oil (with some delay) would be a good trade. APA, XTO and Chesapeake Energy (CHK). On Financial`s I am looking for more rebound and willing to bet on a good name like Goldman Sachs (GS) at this point. Agriculture issues seems to be rebounding well, and buying them on dips turned out to be profitable. I am willing to gain less and frankly speaking can not take the swings in hot names like POT , MON or MOS, I am looking into buying some longer term (maybe in the money calls) for DBA.

Sunday, March 2, 2008

Cal-Maine food on the rise

Cal-Maine food (CALM) is doing well, and it has been under heavy accumulation in the past one or two months. Despite the recent rise in the stock price its PE is under 10 and its relatively cheap. It was feature in IBD (On Friday Feb 29th) IBD pointed out that increase in EGG prices this year (up 37%) improves Cal-Maine bottom-line since Cal-Maine produces 80% of the EGG it sells.