mysidetrades: Recognizing the break-out and awaiting pull-back

Monday, September 24, 2007

Recognizing the break-out and awaiting pull-back

Yesterday I put two stocks on my buying list for the month of October. I have been observing , trading and discussing them multiple times. They both belong to very strong sectors of the market and performed very well in the past year. DRYS closed at $81.65 with high volume and POT closed at $102.79. POT moved from 89 to 102 in 4 trading days with very high volume. Maybe a short squeeze or maybe investors gained more confidence in this sector (other players are also nicely higher in this group). But I try to exercise patience and wait for a pull-back , On DRYS the pull-back of 2points will be acceptable to me but on this on (i.e. POT) I would like to see 4-5 points to get more comfortable to re-enter a long position. As I also mentioned yesterday, I am really hoping for an over-all market pull-back to enter these trades so perhaps wait till WED or Thursday to buy them. The price action on these two stocks is rather wild, exercise caution).

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My trading rules:

Here are a few trading rules that I found working for me over the past 15 years.
A. Try to follow the steps of the elephants (i.e. big mutual funds and institutions).
B. Its not my goal to predict the bottom for a falling stock or hoping to sell at the top.
C. I will be happy to pick the right stock, make a trade in the right direction, and take profit.
D. Always look for shorting opportunities in the market. Fear is a powerful emotion which can drive the stock price to lower levels.
E. Do not see how one can survive without buying puts to protect against bad market. (well If you have short positions a falling market is a good market).
F. Try to allocate not more than 20% of my trading budget for each trade. Always have 15-20% cash and survive my bad decisions and losing trades.
G. Not in love with particular stock or industry group.
H. Always on the hunt for opportunities in the entire equity market.
I. Step away from battle field. Avoid trading one week before and after earning announcement. Digest earning calls and company announcement before getting into it. When you gamble , the house always wins and you lose.
J. Rapid fire moment, does not lend itself to smart thinking.
K. Pressure is mother-of-all bad decisions, don't pressure yourself.
L. Never kick yourself for taking profit.
M. A money management tip: You get out, when getting is good, before you blow yourself up.
N. Its Ok to take a pass on a trade, listen to your inner Clint Eastwood, "Man got to know his limitations."
O. Assess your down-side before entering a trade, not your upside.
P. Always have 10% of your portfolio in cash, and consider yourself fully vested, if you are below 10%. Need to sell some positions to raise cash.
Q. Have a list of good stocks to buy from, look for pullback and be patient. Not having a list to pick from, is a good indication that you have not done your homework.
R. Refrain from trading on a volatile day, let the dust settle, and let the amateurs play. Enter a position when more odds in your favor. Playing earnings is a dangerous way to gamble.

mysidetrades

Monday, September 24, 2007

Recognizing the break-out and awaiting pull-back

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